🐎 Harry Shadow

• Kylian Mbappé's shot volume is consistently high in major tournaments, averaging 5.53 shots per 90 in World Cup 2026. • France's dominant team style, evidenced by their 59% possession and 17.2 shots per game in their last five internationals, will create ample opportunities for Mbappé. • Mbappé's role as a likely designated penalty taker, having taken 50 penalties over the period, provides additional avenues for shots. • Value: consensus -175 - we'd play it to -240. • Prefer value? Over 4.5 (consensus -110) plays to -110. ──────────────────────── Pick history ──────────────────────── • Opened at −180 - Jun 24, 11:06 PM ET

• Spain is rated significantly above Uruguay, holding a 273-point power rating advantage (2147 vs. 1874). • Uruguay faces a weakened squad with confirmed absences of key players Giorgian de Arrascaeta and Ronald Araujo. • Spain's superior team style is reflected in their high shot volume, averaging 21.8 shots for per game, while limiting opponents to just 4.0 shots against. ──────────────────────── Pick history ──────────────────────── • Opened at −205 - Jun 25, 10:16 AM ET

• Spain's dominant team style, averaging 21.8 shots for and only 4.0 shots against per game with 67% possession, severely limits Uruguay's scoring opportunities. • Uruguay's attack is weakened by the absence of key players Giorgian de Arrascaeta and Ronald Araujo, making it harder to score against a strong Spanish side. • Spain's recent form, with 4.78 goals for per game and only 0.34 goals against, indicates they are likely to score while also being unlikely to concede. ──────────────────────── Pick history ──────────────────────── • Opened at −122 - Jun 25, 10:16 AM ET

• Cabo Verde is slightly favored to win based on power ratings, which may lead to more attacking play. • Saudi Arabia's recent concession of 4 goals against Egypt and 2 goals against Serbia and Ecuador could create more chances for Cabo Verde's offense. ──────────────────────── Pick history ──────────────────────── • Opened at +275 - Jun 25, 10:16 AM ET

• Spain's dominant team style, averaging 21.8 shots for and only 4.0 shots against per game, indicates a strong attacking presence likely to generate multiple goals. • Spain's recent form shows a high goal-scoring rate, with their independent model rating them at 4.78 goals for per game and 0.34 goals against per game. • Uruguay's squad is significantly weakened by the absence of key players Giorgian de Arrascaeta and Ronald Araujo, potentially making them more vulnerable defensively. ──────────────────────── Pick history ──────────────────────── • Opened at −119 - Jun 25, 10:16 AM ET

• Cabo Verde's recent form includes a 0-0 draw in their last five internationals, indicating a tendency towards lower-scoring matches. • Saudi Arabia also contributed to this low-scoring trend with a 0-0 draw in their last five, reinforcing the potential for a game with fewer than 2.5 goals. ──────────────────────── Pick history ──────────────────────── • Opened at −127 - Jun 25, 10:16 AM ET

• Croatia enters this match in superior form, having secured three wins in their last five international fixtures, including a 2-1 victory over Slovenia. • Ghana, in contrast, has struggled to find a win in their last five outings, highlighted by a 1-1 draw against Wales. • Croatia's dominant team style is evident in their average of 10.8 shots per game and 58% possession, significantly outpacing Ghana's 6.8 shots and 33% possession. ──────────────────────── Pick history ──────────────────────── • Opened at −131 - Jun 26, 1:05 AM ET

• Congo DR's recent form points to a low-scoring affair, with three of their last five matches featuring two or fewer goals. • Uzbekistan's low average of 7.2 shots for per game and high average of 14.2 shots against per game suggest a difficulty in creating scoring chances, contributing to a lower goal total. • Value: consensus -111 - we'd play it to -115. ──────────────────────── Pick history ──────────────────────── • Opened at −111 - Jun 26, 3:33 AM ET

• Argentina's attack has been prolific, scoring 5 goals against Zambia and 3 against Iceland in recent matches, demonstrating their capability to significantly contribute to the goal total. • Jordan's defense has shown vulnerability in recent internationals, conceding 3 goals to Morocco, 4 to Switzerland, and 2 to Colombia, which Argentina's offense is well-positioned to exploit. • Value: consensus +144 - we'd play it to +125. ──────────────────────── Pick history ──────────────────────── • Opened at +144 - Jun 26, 6:07 AM ET